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Positive energy - The way ahead
Can the world's problems with climate change and energy supply be solved? If we put our minds to it, says Jonathan Yee
As the leaders of the world agonise over the current economic crisis, it's becoming increasingly clear that in order to overcome a problem like this, we must all work in a united and co-ordinated way. This approach could be applied to any crisis, not least the world's energy problem.
The problem is simple: there's an ever-increasing demand for energy and the supply options are limited. However, government regulation, social consciousness and the market economy have all encouraged significant investment in new energy sources over the past decade and I believe that, with sufficient positive thought, answers will be found.
First of all, consider the current situation. Latest forecasts by the IMF suggest that world GDP will grow at a rate of 2.2 per cent in 2009, so the world's thirst for energy is unlikely to abate. The rate of growth is somewhat lower than previously expected and may give the world and technology an opportunity to catch up. However, the fundamentals remain clear: fossil fuels are a finite resource and we can't rely on them to power our economy in the future.
The consensus of the international scientists who form the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is that it's "very likely" that human actions are the cause of climate change. The study by the IPCC that delivered this judgement reaffirmed many governments' commitment to combating climate change. The setting of environmental targets has, in turn, helped create an economic incentive to produce renewable energy and has led to the rapid adoption and deployment of new technology.
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The situation, then, is not hopeless, but we need to get the balance right. Here in the UK, the forthcoming retirement of our nuclear power station portfolio has raised many questions about the appropriate energy generation mix for the country.
Adiversified energy mix has many merits, as it avoids reliance on any single type of fuel. This reduces the vulnerability of energy generation to input costs, such as oil and gas prices. A few countries, including France, have chosen the nuclear route, but for countries opting for the non-nuclear route, there are still a number of options available.
Besides the wind farms that are now symbolic of many countries' efforts to combat climate change and move towards energy independence, there are many new technologies. The problem is that some of these remain stuck in an embryonic stage.
The principle of hydrogen fuel cells, for example, has been around for 170 years. Discovered by German scientist Christian Schönbein in 1838, fuel cells have subsequently been developed to extract energy using hydrogen and oxygen, resulting in no greenhouse gas emissions. However, the challenge faced by scientists today is that the energy required to produce the hydrogen reduces the energy efficiency of the fuel cell technology cycle as a whole.
This doesn't mean that the technology doesn't offer a potential solution, though. Through investment and technological advancement, more efficient methods of extracting hydrogen may be developed.
Humankind has an innate capacity to reach technological advancement when required. Today, this is most likely to be driven by the market economy when high energy prices, which are still higher than historical averages, drive the need and desire for technological advancement through a commercial incentive. Already, buses and concept cars have been developed using this technology, but the fuel is not (yet) viable for the mass market.
Biofuels are also regarded as a potential solution. The principle behind biofuels is that energy is extracted from crops and other biomass that can be grown and are thus renewable. The most common input crops are sugar or maize, which are used to create ethanol. Advocates of biofuels support the use of unused farmland to grow sustainable crops that can be used for energy. In Brazil, an ethanolbased fuel has been in use for decades, proving that the technology is, indeed, practical.
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Meanwhile, energy efficiency remains at the heart of much new technology, which brings us to co-generation. While conventional power stations emit heat energy into the atmosphere as a by-product of energy production, co-generation involves using the steam that would normally be released into the atmosphere to heat buildings and homes.
The Manhattan district of New York has the biggest steam grid in the world, with seven local co-generation power stations responsible for heating 100,000 homes and businesses. Parts of the grid are around 100 years old, but this technology can still work today in highly populated areas because steam can be a very efficient way of heating buildings.
Ultimately, however, the best hope for the future may lie in adapting new technology. Forty years ago, Intel cofounder Gordon Moore predicted that computer chip processing power would grow exponentially. Moore's Law, as it is now commonly known, has been surprisingly accurate. It's claimed that if the same level of technological advancement experienced in computer chip manufacturing was applied to cars, then cars would now be able to travel 100,000 miles on just one gallon of petrol.
Ultimately, of course, physics restricts the level of advancement achievable in cars. What Moore's Law does highlight, though, is the huge potential for progress that can be derived from technological advancement. The key is both the development and the exchange of new ideas.
The internet has connected the world in an unimaginable way and its technology could help solve many energy problems. Social networking sites illustrate the power of the collective and this concept could be developed further, with the appropriate government sponsorship, to reach a consensus on how to develop new technology.
Distributed computer technology has been used in recent years to allow huge amounts of data to be analysed in the fields of medical research, biotechnology and even in the search for artificial life. Distributed computer technology works by getting contributors to donate the idle processing power on their computers to analyse small packets of data. This works particularly well when looking at data results from medical experiments, as the data can be split into small pieces and then distributed to computers around the world. Once analysed, the data is returned to the host, allowing millions of computers to be processing data from a given experiment at any one time.
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It's not unduly optimistic to suggest that these two computing technologies could be developed to work together to help find a better, quicker solution to the world's energy problem. For example, the world's leading scientists could combine via the social networking infrastructure to create a permanent committee on testing new theories. This would enable experiments and development to be focused, and the world's computing power to be used to help analyse data. This is a global problem and a global solution may be the answer.
Meeting the world's energy requirements is a critical prerequisite for economic development and the improvement of living standards. While the current shift in fuel prices and the slowdown in growth rates may provide temporary relief from the consequences of limited supply, the longterm trend of global growth and the finite amount of fossil fuels mean the focus should not be taken away from our energy problem and the need for technological advancement.
Simultaneously, as the world's greatest scientists have confirmed that humans are, very likely, the cause of global warming, energy needs must now be met in an environmentally friendly way. New technological advances have helped to close the gap between energy demand and supply, but more investment is still required to encourage the mainstream use of such technologies and obtain a more diverse energy generation mix.
In the face of adversity, humankind has often prevailed through ingenuity, innovation and collective thinking.Modern-day technology can offer the framework for us all to contribute to such a development goal. Many new renewable energy technologies are ripe for development, the only hurdle being efficiency. As we adopt these technologies, market forces will drive them to greater efficiency. The world's energy problem is not going to go away, but I am encouraged that the first few steps in the long road to discovery have already been taken.
